As Maryland officials work prepare the state to gradually reopen via Governor Larry Hogan’s Maryland Strong: Roadmap to Recovery plan, the state’s Legislative Work Group shared another briefing. This week’s briefing explored modeling and recovery scenarios from John Hopkins’ Dr. Justin Lessler, UMD’s Dr. Lei Zhang, and Columbia’s Dr. Jeffrey Shaman.
Dr. Justin Lessler
Johns Hopkins University
Scenario Modeling Results for Maryland and Beyond
Approach – Dr. Lessler emphasized that these are planning scenarios, not forecasts
- Lessler is not affiliated with the State of Maryland, nor is he advising the Governor on planning decisions with result to re-opening of the Maryland economy.
- Focus on scenarios relevant to planning decisions
- Use rough approximations given best knowledge of disease dynamics, current situation and severity
- Differences more informative than absolutes
- Use a pipelined approach to ease integration of new knowledge and comparison of models
- Senator Lam stated that Hopkins is not overwhelmed and further referenced “Harm Mitigation” protecting vulnerable populations be among the planning goals.
Update on interventions:
- Continued Stay-at-Home Measures with Declining Adherence: Continuation of measures currently in place in MD, with declining adherence
- Maryland Strong Roadmap to Recovery: Current measures, followed by stages 1 and 2 of the Maryland Strong Roadmap to Recovery
- Self isolation (SI) and Household (HH) quarantine: Current measures, followed by 90% compliant self isolation and household quarantine
- SI, HH, Delayed Manual Contact Tracing: Current measures, followed by 90% compliant self isolation and household quarantine, and delayed manual contact tracing of non–household contacts
- SI, HH, Delayed Manual Contact Tracing + Social distancing: Current measures, followed by 90% compliant self isolation and household quarantine, and delayed manual contact tracing of non–household contacts, and maintained social distancing
- HH, Manual Contact Tracing + Social distancing: Current measures, followed by 90% compliant self isolation and household quarantine, and manual contact tracing of non–household contacts, and maintained social distancing
*Note: There are no dates tied to Governor Hogan’s Roadmap to Recovery. Those dates will be determined by the Governor based upon the current data and advice from health and business experts.
Dr. Lei Zhang
University of Maryland
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Dr. Jeffrey Shaman
- Delegate McIntosh expressed concerns over unemployment issues, limited student access to learning due to digital divide. She spoke of “meshing” whereby digital signal could be extended to other rooms by rooftop installed devices.
- Delegate Luedtke would like to see digital treated the same as electricity to make broadband available to more students.
- Delegate Sample-Hughes has concerns that insurance claims for business losses due to COVID-19 are being denied by insurers.
- Senator Griffith expressed the need for behavioral health teleservices.
- Delegate Pena-Melnyk said she has heard a contact tracing vendor will be making 1,000 hires. Will people of color be among those hired?
You can view the slides from today’s briefing in their entirety here.
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